There was no indication that heat pump sales would decline. Quite the opposite! It was predicted that the growth trend would continue in 2023. However, after a record-breaking 2022, a crisis came. Heat pumps are sitting in wholesalers' warehouses. What is the reason? People don't have money? Investing in a pump is no longer profitable? We decided to investigate.
In 2022, the Polish heat pump market could not complain about stagnation. Poland was ranked 8th among European Union countries in terms of heat pump sales per thousand households. According to PORT PC statistics, every third heating device sold was a heat pump. The situation is changing at the beginning of 2023. It turns out that interest in investing in a heat pump has begun to decline.
The forecasts were optimistic
The Polish Organization for the Development of Heat Pump Technology (PORT PC) assumed that heat pump sales would remain high in 2023. According to estimates, demand for air-to-water pumps was to increase by 20-30%, and for ground-source devices by 40-50%. However, today there is talk of a need to correct earlier forecasts.
Air-to-water heat pumps are the ones with the poor results. Although we still have to wait a bit for the official sales results for the first half of 2023, it is estimated that the air-to-water heat pump segment will see a decline of over 30%. It is predicted that in the whole of 2023, in the worst-case scenario, the heat pump sales rate will drop by over 40% compared to 2022.
What is the reason for the decreasing interest in heat pumps?
Investments in the construction sector have slowed down
According to PORT PC, the main reason for the decline in heat pump sales in 2023 is the slowdown in construction sector investments – not only new ones, but also modernizations and renovations. High inflation translates into higher prices of construction and finishing materials, household appliances and labor. The situation is not helped by high credit costs, financial uncertainty of investors, high electricity prices and an unfavorable ratio of energy prices to natural gas prices.
The unstable situation in the country is causing people to postpone renovation and construction work until the future. In difficult times, the profitability of investing in a heat pump is questionable.
There are no clear signals about the profitability of the investment
The problem that clearly affects the decrease in interest in investing in heat pumps is the lack of clear actions on the part of the government that would support the popularization of this type of device. The relations between the prices of natural gas and energy in Poland do not encourage the choice of a heat pump. What could convince potential investors is the introduction of special energy tariffs for heat pump users or changes in the taxation of energy carrier prices. We need a systemic solution that will show the justification for investing in heat pumps.
What will the future bring? According to experts, the situation will improve slightly only in 2024. This is to be contributed to by the publication of the European Commission's project assuming the widespread use of heat pumps, scheduled for the third quarter of 2023.
First, photovoltaics and an energy storage system
In order for the investment in a heat pump to be truly profitable, you first need to invest in photovoltaics – preferably with an energy storage system. A heat pump needs electricity to operate. It is estimated that during the heating season, the device uses from 3,800 to 4,200 kWh of electricity. Thanks to photovoltaics with an energy storage, we can significantly reduce electricity bills. Then the investment in a heat pump will be profitable.
